How do I adjust my Amazon ad budget for seasonal sales spikes and dips?
Ah, seasonal sales - the ultimate game of guess the budget. One minute you're riding the high of a Black Friday sales frenzy, and the next, you're staring at a quiet, tumbleweed-ridden January.
Adjusting your Amazon ad budget to flow with these peaks and valleys can feel like trying to predict the stock market. But fear not, dear Amazon seller! We're here to bust the myths, tackle your budgeting woes, and give you the tools you need to master seasonal ad spending. (And yes, we can almost feel you nodding along skeptically - stay with us, it'll be worth it.)
But before we begin, two quick caveats. Firstly, not having spikes and dips is the ideal scenario and the goal should be to have consistent, increasing sales. However, when you’re starting out, and in some categories, seasonality and spikes are unavoidable. It's in these scenarios that we want to share some thoughts.
Secondly, as you’ll see, your ad budget doesn’t exist in isolation and is closely tied to other elements of your sales planning including stock management and cash planning. Understand it as part of a more global view of your strategy.
Predicting the Peaks and Valleys
First up, seasonality. It's the puppet master behind your sales. One moment, your products are flying off the shelves; the next, it's as lonely as a snow shovel in July.
The solution?
Understanding seasonal trends like a pro.
Here’s how to nail it without the headache:
Research, research, research
Use Amazon’s reports (look into search term reports and category insights) and industry data to spot the ‘when’ and ‘how much’ of high-demand periods.Search and conversion data is now available on Amazon, and you are able to pull this for almost every category. Even better, you can look back a whole year and really try understand what has happened, assess trends, and forecast any potential behaviour.
Know your product's rhythm
Nearly every item has its season. If you're selling sunglasses, summer is your time. For holiday decor? Hello, Q4. Identify these peaks to avoid that "why didn’t I prepare for this?" moment. Not only is this important for your advertising budget, but also in knowing how much to stock you might need, when to order more, and when it needs to be ready by. In fact, this should be a core part of your selling playbook.
Stalk your calendar
Highlight key shopping dates and seasons. Think, when will customers in my category be most searching for my product online? This also includes Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Prime Day. These are THE days to shine.
But let’s not forget other promotional periods you might want to ink into your calendar:
Q1 Fitness Craze (January)
Valentine’s Day (February)
Easter Holidays (March/April)
Mother's and Father’s Day (May & June)
Wedding Season (May–September)
Back-to-School Season (August–September).
Halloween (October)
Small Business Saturday (November)
Christmas Season (November–December)
Now let's talk planning.
Before the Rush (because winging it just isn’t a plan)
Budget success doesn’t happen by accident - it comes from preparing ahead of time. This is where proactive planning swoops in to save the day (and your wallet).
Pro tips for the pre-rush grind:
Dig into historical data
What happened last year? Look at previous sales and ad performance to see trends and adjust accordingly. Trust your numbers; they're your crystal ball.
Marry inventory with ads
No, seriously. Boosting ads when you’re running low on stock? Recipe for disaster. Coordinate with your supply chain to avoid the heartbreak of "Out of Stock" notifications during Prime Day madness. This can also include reducing your ad aggression to slow things down, or increasing your prices so you can make the most of the stock you do have available.
Use a content calendar
Plot out your ad strategy in advance, ensuring your big spend aligns with peak periods. It'll keep you sane, promise. We recommend look at things 90 days at a time, and reviewing within that period. This means you can also address any changes to rate of sale, competitor behaviour and enable you to plan your stock and cash accordingly.
By planning ahead, you’ll sleep better knowing your budget isn’t being thrown into the seasonal abyss.
Smart Spending During Peak Season
Alright, it’s crunch time.
The shoppers are out in droves, credit cards at the ready. Don’t just throw cash at your ads - be strategic.
Here's how to get the best bang for your buck when demand surges:
Ease into the spend
Sudden budget hikes can confuse Amazon’s algorithm (and drain your wallet). Gradual increases keep things stable.
Aim for high-converting keywords
Don't reinvent the wheel here. Focus on the keywords that have already proven themselves as winners. Why risk guessing during the busiest time of year?
Run promo campaigns
Everyone loves a deal (and by "everyone," we mean literally everyone). Flash discounts, coupon codes, lightning deals - all golden for attracting shoppers.
Invest in Sponsored Brand Ads
Peak season is the time to spotlight your brand. These ads boost visibility and can draw shoppers in like a moth to a flame.
Monitor performance daily
Yep, daily. Adjust bids and budgets based on what’s working. There's zero room for "set it and forget it" during peak sales.
This is not the time to play timid. But don’t worry, you can dial it back once the chaos settles.
Protecting Your Budget (aka how to be chill during the off-season)
January rolls up, the fireworks are over, and shoppers are now strictly in browse mode. This is where smart sellers stand out - by playing defense and keeping it lean.
Dial down bids
Lower your spending on less critical keywords. Save the big bucks for the next peak.
Pause underperformers. If a campaign isn’t generating ROI, why keep funding it? Hit pause and shift focus to what works.
Build your brand
Slow periods are for planting seeds. Retarget past customers, nurture loyalty, and create campaigns that speak to your audience.
Experiment with long-tail keywords
These niche phrases may not have massive volume, but they can bring highly targeted traffic.
Stay visible
Don't ghost your audience. Maintain a low-level presence so shoppers remember you when demand ramps back up. Similarly, you may need to think defensively (or aggressively) to address competitor behaviour to capture more market share when everyone has taken their eye off the ball. Think of the slow season as your off-season training - essential for crushing the next big spike.
Keeping an Eye on the Competition
Competition doesn’t take holidays, and neither should your vigilance. Here's how to keep your edge without blowing your budget:
Spy (legally, of course)
Watch competitors’ ads during peak seasons. Notice their keyword choices, promotions, and placements. If you have Brand Registry, the Market Opportunity Explorer is your go-to starting point. If not, Got tools like Helium 10, Jungle Scout or DataHawk? Use them.
Be competitive without overspending
If a competitor’s ad is outranking yours, refine your bids and optimise your listing. You can even consider increasing your price slightly if you have a strong conversion rate, to work the algorithms in your favour. Remember, it's about being smart, not reckless.
Look at product reviews
Sounds unrelated, doesn’t it? It’s not. Your competitors’ reviews can reveal pain points to address in your own campaigns, making your ads more compelling.
A little competitive analysis goes a long way in keeping your campaigns sharp and effective.
Key Takeaways
Seasonal sales spikes and dips don’t have to feel like a rollercoaster. With careful planning, strategic spending, and an eye on the competition, you can dominate peak seasons and survive slow periods unscathed.
Here's a quick wrap-up of what we covered:
Use data and research to understand your product's seasonality.
Plan ad budgets and sync them with your inventory.
Maximise ROI in peak seasons with gradual increases, high-converting keywords, and brand-focused ads.
Use slow periods for brand-building and ROI grooming without fully disappearing.
Keep tabs on competitors and refine your campaigns based on insights.
And just like that, you’re on your way to seasonal ad-budget mastery! Now, go forth and conquer those sales cycles like the savvy seller you are.